While trade bounced back from Covid and supply chain crises in the first half of 2021, this rally has not lasted. Sharp rises in inflation, interest rates and the prices of raw materials and energy inputs continue to be growth dampeners. This episode welcomes three trade experts who share their outlook on what will drive trade in 2023.
“The recession does not look quite as severe as everyone thought,” says Dr Rebecca Harding, Independent trade economist, who explains why the uncertainty surrounding prices, supply chains, energy security and the ongoing Russia/Ukraine conflict isn’t going away.
According to Deutsche Bank’s Global Co-Head of Trade Finance and Lending, Atul Jain, “2023 represents the great unlocking of multiple years of pent-up demand”. As a result, he anticipates “higher volumes, paired with higher prices across every asset class; the combination of which will drive significant trade finance growth this year, led by commodities”.
Chris Southworth, Chris Southworth, Secretary General of ICC United Kingdom, says that “it will take time to rebuild completely post-pandemic” and highlights how Brexit had “exposed the UK economy” when it comes to trade. However, he commended the new UK-Singapore Digital Economy Agreement (June 2022) that has, he says has “set a completely new gold standard” with transaction happening in minutes, not months”.
Tune in to hear more from our topical trio!